Russia-Ukraine Crisis

The crisis in Ukraine is continuing to escalate, with Russia gaining notoriety for its aggressive approach. Whereas, the Russian President embarks on Military confrontation to avoid NATO's influence. This is a marked escalation in rhetoric, and it comes as a shock to those who are just hearing about the conflict. 

But what is going on? What are the diplomatic efforts being made? To help you understand what is happening and what could happen next, here is an analysis of where we stand in the current crisis.

Background

Russia and Ukraine are two of the most important countries in the world. Both of them have a huge amount of land and resources. However, both of them have been fighting for their territories for a long time. There are several reasons why Russia invaded Ukraine.

Ukraine has always been a Russian province and Russia is the largest country in the world. This fact is not a secret, but many people don't know that Ukraine was once part of Russia. In 1991, the Soviet Union was dissolved and Ukraine became an independent country.

Russia has been accused of annexing Crimea and invading eastern Ukraine, while Ukraine has been accused of supporting separatists in the Donbas region. The main conflict between Russia and Ukraine is over control of Crimea and the Donbas region. Well, the story does not end here!

The agreement was signed "Minsk" between the regional adversary which proposed the ceasefire, military withdrawal, and to hold the election in a rebel-held area. In this story, the reality is what may or may not be real!!!

What is going on in Ukraine?

Ukraine is currently in a state of political unrest. This unrest began in 2014 when the government decided to change the country's Constitution - which led to protests and eventually civil war. As of now, the conflict has not ended and is ongoing.

Following the eight years of the Minsk Accord, it remains unimplemented. For now, the Ukrainian people are divided into two categories: the people of the western side are more inclined towards Europe, whereas, the people of eastern Ukraine are closer to Russia. Meanwhile, a subcategory exists which lies in between these two. The ethnicity, sentiment, culture, history, language, and heritage caused this division which was later fueled by political influence. 

  

This conflict lies at the core of domestic politics since 2014 the Ukrainian State policy has descent on the Western power by considering joining NATO and EU. Since Volodymyr Zelensky came into power, his voice is so vocal against the Russians and their policies.   

After threatening many times, Volodymyr Zelensky refused Putin's warning and follows their pro-west approach. Hence, the day come on 24th February, when Russia officially launched a large-scale military operation against the resistance force in Eastern Ukraine. 

• More than 3 million people were displaced since the war began.
• More than 700 civilians have been killed, according to the UN. However, the number is not exactly visible and it was expected more than 1,000. 
• If you look at the number of dead soldiers, no one is sure about the exact number to date but due to the offensive approach from the Russian side, it was expected the death toll is more than the Ukrainian soldier with no such difference.   

How is the US involved with Ukraine?

The US is concerned about the Russian invasion of Ukraine because it could lead to further Russian aggression against other nations. The US also sees Russia as a potential adversary, because it wants to prevent Russia from becoming a major power in the region. 

Since Zelensky came into power, the US and its allies deeply connected with the regional status of Ukraine and make efforts to isolate Kyieve over Moscow's influence.  

Sanctions imposed on Russia

The US administration and European alliance also actively involved by sanctioning Russia over this aggressor, these sanctions include: (major sanctions)

• Banning all Russian oil and gas imports and the UK will phase out Russian oil by the end of this year. 
• The EU, which gets a quarter of its oil and 40% of its gas from Russia, will prepare to switch alternatives supplies and make Europe independent from Russian energy before the end of this decade.
• The UK has decided to put a 35% tax on some imports from Russia, including vodka.
• All the Russian flights have been banned from the US, UK, EU, and Canadian airspace. Also, include banned private jets chartered by Russians.

Meanwhile, what do we expect from Russia to overcome the post-sanction crisis? Well, Russia has the economic depth to sustained this short-term crisis but needs a long-term plan to overcome it. 

Peace Talks 

As the Ukraine war enters into the 4th week, the peace talk comes into more focus as Ukrainian President Zelensky is willing to talk with Russia over their policy to align with the western block (NATO), following Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said there is now "some hope for compromise", on neutral guarantees. 

However, this model works only if, "Ukrainian and only on legally verified security guarantees", said Mikhailo Podolyak, Ukrainian lead negotiator. President Putin has said Russia was ready to discuss Ukraine's neutral status but that Moscow would still achieve the goals of its military operation. 

The US state department issued some concern over this talk, saying, "yet to find a Russian interlocutor that is either or willing to negotiate in good faith, and certainly not in the context of de-escalation."