Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

Armenia and Azerbaijan both former Soviet Republics are again face to face with more stressful way and this time it seems to be a major war over Nagorno-Karabakh region. But before going to discuss it just look at the background of Nagorno-Karabakh, after that it’s easy to understand and analyze the conflict between the two countries.

Background of Nagorno-Karabakh:

In 1920’s, the Soviet government declared Nagorno-Karabakh as an autonomous region-where around 95 percent of the population is ethnically Armenian within Azerbaijan. At that time, fighting between these two countries was kept in check under Bolshevik rule (1917-1924). But with the passage of time their minor skirmishes is supposed to be unstoppable. As the Soviet Union saw increasing tension in its constituent republics, resulted in 1988 Nagorno-Karabakh legislature passed a resolution to join Armenia despite the region’s legal location within Azerbaijan border which will be unjustified for Azerbaijan. Later on war begin between Armenia and Azerbaijan over this region, leaving around 30,000 causalities and hundreds of thousands of refugees. In 1993, Armenia illegally occupied the 20 percent of the surrounding Azerbaijani territory. Year 1994, Russia officially brokered ceasefire which is still going on.

Since then, Nagorno-Karabakh has remained part of Azerbaijan, but is controlled by ethnic Armenians backed by Armenians government. This issue is still unresolved for about three decades. International powers like Minsk Group which was created in 1994 to address the dispute which was co-chaired by United States, Russia and France has failed to play their part in the region, therefore this issue seems to be resolved through military intervention which means fight for your rights. 

Location of Nagorno-Karabakh:

Nagorno-Karabakh (mountainous Karabakh), also known as Artsakh, is a landlocked region in the south of Caucasus, within the mountainous region of Karabakh, lying between Lower Karabakh and Zangezur, and covering the southeastern range of the Lesser Caucasus mountains. The region is mostly mountainous and forested. Nagorno-Karabakh occupied an area of about 1,700 square miles (4,400 sq.km). The entire territory is surrounded by Azerbaijan.

Current Situation: 

First time Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a war over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990’s, a conflict that ended a cease fire but no settlement. Since then minor skirmishes is going on. But, if you look at a past few year clashes, which is gradually increased because of its complexity. In 2016, both the country fought over this region for about four consecutive day, which is define as “the worst” since the 1994 ceasefire agreement. But this time it looks more dangerous or critical some expert also predict that it might be “an all-out war”.

The fighting broke out on Sunday 27^th Sep 2020, which surpasses the recent years escalation, involving heavy artillery, tanks, missiles and drones. Azerbaijan and Armenia both claim each other for de escalation. So far there are more than 100 confirmed death and thousands of wounded among civilians and Armenian military person. Azerbaijan not officially declared their causalities but some sources assumed to be at least high. Both the country imposed the Martial Law.

But question arise, who dominate the entire situation? I thinks it’s too early to say but few things is necessary to understand. Azerbaijan’s military is much stronger then Armenian military in every department, which means Azerbaijan dominate the Military power and more importantly Turkey as a friendly neighbor of Azerbaijan give full support in a global level while no one give a strong statement in favor of Armenia. That’s the reason why Armenia is ready for a cease-fire talks after defying. While on the other hand Azerbaijan want their sovereign territory back which was illegally occupied by Armenian’s in the early 1990’s. This is considered to be the last chance for Azerbaijan perspective.   

Military Comparison:

No country officially declared their military strength, but I found some result through different platform which is helpful to understand their military power. The major weapon supplier for Azerbaijan and Armenia is Russia because of their old relations. If you talk about the military budget of Azerbaijan which is approximately $ 2.267 Billion, while Armenia spend around $ 451.30 Million which is less than half of the Azerbaijan’s military budget.

The comparison list is given below:

Note: In this list I have not mention Naval power because Armenia is a landlocked state.

Turkey’ Stance:

Turkey has a traditionally friendly relation with Azerbaijan and declared unconditional support in all the sector including, military, financially and diplomatically. Both states also held joint military exercises several times for enhance the capability against the enemy.  Turkey’s narrative is clear on this conflict, saying a ceasefire was only possible if Armenian withdraw its “occupation” of Azerbaijan territory. In a speech to the Turkish Parliament Thursday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed Armenia for the renewed fighting and said, "Our Azerbaijani brothers are now waiting for the day they will return to their land.

Turkey's complete support in favor of Azerbaijan hurting Armenians badly and with that Armenian Ministry of Defense said that one its fighter jet shot down by a Turkish F-16. He further said that Turkish jets had taken off in Azerbaijan, flown into Armenia and shot down our military plane. In response to this statement Turkey and Azerbaijan denied this had happened.

President Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan) meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkey) at Ankara 

Russia's Stance:

Russia plays a neutral role, because of his bilateral ties with both states. Moscow provides Armenia with security guarantees, but these do not extend to the combat zone in Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. Russia only focused for a ceasefire.

Moscow has an uneasy relationship with Armenia's new post-2018 leader Nikol Pashinyan, and Yerevan would undoubtedly prefer to handle the escalation as far as possible on its own.

International Community Stand:    

Rising tension of this conflict is internationally a “hot issue”. Let’s discuss how major power looking at this issue?  On Thursday, the presidents of Russia, the U.S. and France issued a joint statement condemning the escalation in fighting and calling for an immediate cease-fire and resumption of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan without preconditions. Iran, Georgia and Qatar have also offered to mediate.

Armenia-Pakistan Relation:

Pakistan-Armenia bilateral relation is not that much good for many reason. Pakistan is the only country in the world that does not recognized Armenia as a state, moreover Pakistan fully back Azerbaijan narrative in the disputed territory. The main causes for bad relation is Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenian Genocide. Since the 1970’s Pakistan has supported Turkeys position that the Genocide did not occur.

Furthermore Armenian Ministry of Defense also claim that Pakistan Army also take part alongside Azerbaijan against us on the behalf of fake evidence, which was strongly rejected by Foreign Office of Pakistan on Friday 2nd Oct.  

 

Summary Of the dispute:

This is considered to be the worst clash between the rivals after their independence with that fact I don’t see any solution of this conflict except Armenia withdraw all its troops from Nagorno-Karabakh, which seems to impossible or a cease fire which is a short term solution. This dispute need permanent solution. Azerbaijan position is legally clear, no country can compromise on their territory, and after all it’s about three decades, it has to be resolved now. The role of UN as usual is limited on paper work, about 8 resolution UN has passed on this conflict but result remain same. You can also consider “Kashmir Issue” which is still not resolved after UN resolutions. There are plenty of example you can search on internet you have may found that there are more than dozens of conflict is going on, which highly raise a question over UN creation. If we are moving in a same direction then it could be a disaster for humanity.

 “IF WE DON’T END WAR, WAR WILL END US”

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